Gold's Big Correction Won't Come Before The Gold Price Finishes This Rally, and Its Target is $1,300

Gold Price Close Today : 1,146.50
Gold Price Close Nov 13: 1,116.10
Change: 30.40 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.433
Silver Price Close Nov 13: 17.37
Change: 1.0630 or 6.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,447.40
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 1,393.10
Change: 54.30 or 3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 364.95
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 356.80
Change: 8.15 or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio Nov 13: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Dow Industrial Nov 13: 10270.47
Change: 47.69 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 75.579
US Dollar Index Nov 13: 75.286
Change:0.29 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE closed the week up $30.40, and rose on the day $5 to close on Comex at $1,146.50. In the aftermarket it's trading above $1,150.00. Big news of the week is Gold's running attack on $1,150, but it hasn't beaten down that gate yet. Am I nervous that this rally might end? Well, yes and no. Yes, a correction is long overdue and could come at any time, but only a short and shallow one. The big correction won't come before gold finishes this rally, and its target is $1,300. What makes me most fidgety of all is all this coverage of gold on TV, radio, newspapers. That's feels like the kiss of death, from a contrary standpoint, all those parvenu speculators crowding into gold. They will head for the exits and take their support with them just as quickly if gold cracks. A fast decline would shake out all these weak hands, and good enough for 'em. But gold's climb since last summer has been relentless, and wise men don't fight bull markets. Let your profits run and cut your losses short.

The SILVER PRICE, blessed silver, was the star performer this week, with a $1.02 rise on Monday. Looking back over the last year and some, rises like that, oddly enough, do not signal tops. They occur more often after bottoms and when the silver price is readying a big upmove. Little resistance stands between silver and the last (and all-time) high at $20.68. Above all is uncharted territory, as with the gold price. Anything can happen. Today the silver price closed $18.433, down 1.4 cents, not yet able to push through $18.50.

The end is NOT near for SILVER and GOLD PRICES. I told y'all earlier that this is a third leg up and should be a wild and woolly ride, and so far it has been. Much more upside over 5 or more years lies in store for silver and gold.

STOCKS are teetering above support at 10,120. If they break that line, then look out 9,700. Yesterday & today the Dow was stymied at 10,340. Friday of last week through Thursday the Dow traced out what appears to be an island top. (Technically there should be gaps up at either end of the island and they're not, but the appearance is nearly identical, so the same forces are probably at play.) Stay out of stocks. They have reached the 50% correction point and are now slowly turning over. A close over 10,440 would lead to a brief spike above that mark, maybe reaching 11,000, but you don't want to hang around for that. Once the decline starts the carnage will be appalling.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is trying to bottom, but not too convincingly. It has made a double bottom at 75/74.80 & has refused to fall through, although it has also refused to do more than trade sideways. Today was its best day this week with a 29 basis point climb to close at 75.579. Watch out for a sudden dollar rally. Everybody in the Cosmos is short dollars and expects the dollar to crash and some are even predicting a dollar collapse before year end. Rumours of the dollar's death are premature. Any dollar rally will punish the smart guys in the dollar carry trade who have borrowed cheap and (they hope) depreciating dollars to speculate in other, hotter markets. When dollar rallies they will be squeezed to death between the Scylla of a rising dollar and the Carybdis of sinking stocks and commodities.

A reader asked me what the "aftermarket" is. That's sort of an archaic phrase nowadays, but it means all the trading after the Comex close at 13:30 Eastern time. Since computerized trading opened up after Comex close, there's really unbroken trading throughout the day in the US, and then around the world. Silver and gold trade in 24 hour a day markets.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Once the Gold Price Clears $1,150, it Will Jump Again

Gold Price Close Today : 1141.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.447
Change: 0.40 cents or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1441.50
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.65
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.87
Change: 0.037 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,332.44
Change: -93.87 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Over the last five days the GOLD PRICE has left behind an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. Looks like $1123.55 - $1127 was resistance, then gold broke through that and jumped to $1,144, touched back to $1,27.70 to make sure, and yesterday whacked hard on $1,150's door. Today it bounced off $1,150 and retraced to $1,130, but closed on Comex at $1,141.40 (up 70 cents) but traded higher in the aftermarket to $1,145.30. Present blockade lies at $1,150. Once gold clears that, it will jump again, another $30 - $50.

Since September the SILVER PRICE has made a series of gains solidified and confirmed by successful reaction tests. It leapt from $13.50 in August to $17.60, successfully proved that gain in a reaction to $15.80. Then came another jump to $18.00, reaction and defense at $16.06, followed by a leap to $17.50, test of $17.00, and surge to $18.80 yesterday. Today it backed off to $18.13, but closed on Comex up 4 cents at $18.447. Right now its trading at $18.57.

Do y'all perceive a pattern?

Silver must close below $18.00 to threaten its uptrend. Very little resistance stands between here and the old high at $20.68. Short, shallow corrections may come at any time, but the Big Rally has by no means ended yet. Keep buying.

Over the past three days the US $ Index has made higher lows (slightly) but been blocked at highs of 75.60. That forms a rising flat-topped triangle. Generally, but not always by any means, that formation breaks out to the upside. Meanwhile the dollar is staging a lousy performance. Up a few basis points one day, down 30 or more the next, and never quite able to put distance between itself and dangerous support at 74.90. Must either break through 75.60 above or will fall clean through 74.90 and further. My money's on that latter outcome. Scrofulous dollar closed today at 75.284, up 10 basis points. Situation deteriorating but still undecided.

STOCKS have formed an island top in the last five days. Friday the Dow topped at 10,300, then Monday jumped clean to 10,360 - 10,440, traded there Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then dropped to 10,300 today and rallied up to 10,350. Still looks like an island top to me, although technically an island top has gaps on either side. Stocks must now close above 10,450 to disprove a top in place. Any close below 10,200 leads speedily to 9,700. Get out of stocks. Get. Out. Now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

If Silver and Gold Prices Can Pierce $18.50 and $1,140, They Will Run Much Further, Much Longer.

Gold Price Close Today : 1138.80
Change: 0.20 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.377
Change: -1.3 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1458.00
Change: 3.60 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 370.70
Change: -5.55 or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.97
Change: 0.011 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,437.42
Change: 30.46 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.37 or 0.5%

The US DOLLAR INDEX flirted with suicide today at a 74.80 low, but a "miracle" intervened for the scrofulous dollar and it ended the day up 39.6 basis points at 75.306 -- saved for the nonce but not far from the line of fire. Since mid-
October the dollar hath thrice tested 75-74.80 support. I don't believe in "triple bottoms" because usually they are only preludes to a breakdown. To restore credibility
the Dollar Index needs to close above 76.80. We'll see.

The GOLD PRICE had declined overnight from yesterday's highs to $1,136.60. Driven all the way to $1,127.20 before New York opened, gold nevertheless rose steadily throughout the day. On Comex gold closed near its $1,141.84 high at $1,138.80, up 20 cents. Bad that it didn't close higher, but good, very good, that it declined, bounced off $1,127, and rose to close even with yesterday. And, lo, in the aftermarket it tradeth now at $1,140.50.

SILVER's chart resembles gold's. From a top yesterday above $18.40, silver traded overnight as low as $18.06. Yet the mighty white metal handily fought off the attack, defended 1800 cents, and rose steadily to close on Comex at $18.377, down 1.3c. Well, think on it. Silver rose 102 cents yesterday. Such huge gains don't come every day, an da rest is in order.

THE GREAT CONUNDRUM is whether silver and gold prices can rise further from these seemingly nosebleed heights. There's that wall of worry again. Y'all remember Kenny Rogers' song, "The Gambler"? "You gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em." But how do you know?

Over the last 11 months both silver and gold have been trading with monotonous and unwonted regularity, up and down, up and down, about 105 days from Gold/Silver Ratio trough to trough. Never saw the like before, up and down at the same measured pace. About now when traders have been lulled into complacency, the market will switch and change the pace, lengthening or shortening the cycle, truncating or extending the move. This feels like fall 2007. Remember how both metals rose from August right through to March 2008? Nothing could stop them. Sure, both are overbought now, but they can always get more overbought still.

Gold's indicators are high, seeming to signal a top near. Silver's are not so high, and have room to rise higher. Both metals stand at a crossroads. If silver and gold can pierce $18.50 and $1,140, they will run much further, much longer. If not, then first a correction and then the run-up. Either way, $1,300 gold remains the technical target, and crazy silver is aiming at $23.00 to $33.00.

STOCKS fought fiercely to stay in positive territory today. Most of the day they traded at a loss, the Dow dropping as low as 10,362 and the S&P500 as low as 1,103. Much like silver and gold, stocks have between yesterday and today drawn a double top and must penetrate that ceiling (10,440) or fall back. Dow closed today up 30.46 at 10,437.42; S&P rose 1.02 to close 1,110.32. Nasdaq also rose, but other indices dropped marginally. Smells of confusion and indecision. Stay away from stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Silver Price Should Outperform the Gold Price Like a Show-Off - Buy the Break Out

Gold Price Close Today : 1,138.60
Gold Price Close 13 Nov: 1,095.10
Change: 43.50 or 4.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.39
Silver Price Close 13 Nov: 17.365
Change: 10.250 cents or 5.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,454.40
Platinum Price Close 13 Nov: 1,344.30
Change: 110.100 or 8.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 376.25
Palladium Price Close 13 Nov: 330.25
Change: 46.00 or 13.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio 13 Nov: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,406.96
Dow Industrial 13 Nov: 10,023.42
Change: 383.540 or 3.8%

US Dollar Index: 74.911
US Dollar Index 13 Nov: 75.761
Change: -0.850 or -1.1%

Look at the changes for the week. Clearly, gold, silver, and stocks (?) are still rallying. Whatever damage to those rallies a dollar rally might do remain immaterial because the dollar refuses to rally yet.

Today was a big break out day for stocks and metals, and self-defense makes us ask whether they are joined at the hip. If they rise together will they fall together? For stocks I am sure of the answer (as sure as I ever get about such things), but not for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed today dead on top of its lower support, at 74.911, down 37.5 basis points from Friday. Resistance runs from 74.777 to 74.900. If the dollar breaks that line, it will fall clean to 74, then further. Maybe even revisit the old low at 71. Tomorrow will seal the dollar's fate, one way or t'other.

STOCKS at long last have reached the 50% correction of the Spring 2009 to Now rally, 10,375. In fact, the Dow closed above that mark at 10,406.96, up 136.49. From here you have to reckon the Dow as a dead man walking. It could spike as far as 11,000, but this is as good as it gets for stocks. S&P500 closed at 1,109.30, up 15.82 Mark well, my friends, that although stocks are making new rally highs in dollar terms, in gold and silver terms the bloom long ago left the rose. The Dow in Gold Dollars topped on 27 August at G$209.47 (10.133 oz), fell through support G$195-194, and today stands just above free-fall territory. Although the Dow rose to a new high today, the DiG$ closed G$188.94 (9.14 oz), down and nearly a new low. Point is, these two, stocks and gold, are NOT moving together but against each other.

My friend Bob The Technical Genius called today and recommended that I call up charts of the ETFs, SLV & GLD, for a clear view of what silver and gold prices are doing.





Very clearly you will see the breakaway gap on both charts today. Assuming that this is a breakaway gap rather than an exhaustion gap, which is hardly likely here, then gold and silver prices are signaling a fast, large run up. That offers another argument against metals stopping here.

The SILVER PRICE today finally crossed $18.00, and spectacularly. It rose $1.02 to close at $18.39 on Comex. That's a 5.9% rise in one day! Since silver has hung back back more than gold, from here (as it is later in the rally) silver should outperform gold like a show-off. Buy the break out.

The GOLD PRICE last week argued that it was very strong when it dropped to $1,106 then closed higher Friday at $1,116.10. That set gold up for today's surge of $22.50 to a Comex close at $1,138.60. I still expect this rally to reach $1,300 before it stops. However, my friend Bob, who is a world-class worrier when it comes to markets, is sweating bullets over the $1,140 point. Okay, recall nowr H.L. Hunt's wise words, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Any time now silver and gold could undergo sharp corrections as they tread their path to gold at $1,300. However, I don't believe that will happen tomorrow, or until both metals put meaty gains under their belts.

How will you know I am wrong? A silver close below $18.00 or a gold close below $1,106 would sound alarm claxons. Be clear, though, about stocks. They can completed their 50% correction, and can collapse any day now. They are extremely overbought (gold and silver are not).

If you still have stocks, better call your broker in the morning and sell them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Gold/Silver Ratio is Signalling Lower Silver and Gold Prices, but Not Much Lower

Gold Price Close Today : 1106.00
Change: -8.00 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.255
Change: -27.2 cents or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1352.10
Change: -24.00 or -1.7%1

Palladium Price Close Today: 348.45
Change: 2.50 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.10
Change: 0.538 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,197.47
Change: -93.79 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Oh, Silver, Silver! How you worry those who love you! The SILVER PRICE may be forming a head and shoulders top, or that could be merely a continuation pattern -- 'tisn't clear yet. 50 DMA lies at $17.01, 200 DMA at $14.50, both ever possible targets for a correction. Best outcome for silver tomorrow is to hold above $17.00.
A fall through $17.00 leads to a re-test of $16.70, or even $16.00. Momentum indicators do NOT look overbought.

The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex down $8.00 at $1,106.00. In the aftermarket it has traded down to $1,103.10.

What are y'all griping about? Did y'all think the Road to Glory for silver and gold prices would be paved smooth so your roller skates wouldn't bump? The Bull always tries to shake off as many riders as possible.

If the gold price is following the same "jump-run-in-place" pattern it's followed since September, it might retreat to the last jumping off point, $1,065. Right now it is trading roughly at the bottom of the range from which it surged to the upside yesterday, so that level might contain it. Momentum indicators show gold overbought, but not outrageously. That occurred several days ago, which throws up another red flag.

One last thought. The gold/silver ratio rose back to 64.10 today. Mmmmm. That might mean that a second and higher top than November second's (645.111) might follow, but not much higher. The ratio has done that before. If so, the ratio is signalling lower silver and gold prices, but not much lower.

Title of today's action might be "Revenge of the Dollar Nerd." Yes, hard as it is to credit, the scrofulous US Dollar Index actually rose today, 49 whole basis points to 75.652. Now it has traced out a potential double bottom at 74.90, but still must get through resistance at 76 -- by no means a foregone conclusion. If 'tis rallying, first target is the 50 day moving average at 76.26. Then more resistance lurks at 77. If it rallies the far target is 78. Oddly, the MACD & RSI momentum indicators don't really point to a rally, since they are hovering near the top of the range.

The dollar's rally (and several days' upmove) wounded Stocks today but not fatally -- at least, that's not proven yet. Some day soon stocks will indeed top, but not yet, I think. Look for one last push up into that 10,375 (50% correction mark).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Listen to the Flashing Message: the Gold Price has Broken Out Through $1,000.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1114.00
Change: 12.10 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.527
Change: 31.5 cents or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1371.40
Change: 15.90 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 344.75
Change: 11.60 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.56
Change: -0.460 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,284.91
Change: 37.94 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE keeps on repeating the same pattern: jump, run in place, jump. Thus today it jumped the $1,108 hurdle, ran to $1,118.60, and on Comex closed up $12.10 at $1,1114. Now in the aftermarket it's trading at $1,117.10. Listen to the flashing message: the gold price has broken out through $1,000.00 (one thousand dollars), and by measuring the upside down head and shoulders formed on gold's chat from March 2008 to July 2009, will rise $300 from breakout point. That means it will rise from $1,000 to $1,300.00.

The laggard SILVER PRICE lagged not today. On Comex it closed up 31.5cents at 17.527. Range today was $17.71 to $17.39. The silver price is probing, probing overhead resistance at 17.60. If it breaks through here, 'twill run straight for 18.00, then jump clean to 21.00 so fast it'll spin your head around like that little girl's in The Exorcist. Yes, the silver price cannot hang back too much longer, but it has been roughly keeping up with the gold price and now appears ready to rush ahead.

Ratio touched 64.019 yesterday, leaving behind a double top with 64.111 on 2 November. That's your second messenger whispering that silver is about to take off.

What about the US DOLLAR INDEX? Is it threatening silver and gold prices by strengthening? Not much. It's bumping along 75. Overnight it once again successfully resisted the market's attempt to drive it below 74.80, touching 74.774. But it climbed and stayed above 75.10 from 11 - 4 EST. Still, no real sign of turning and rallying, only failure to break down. Suspicious, may smell of a turn, but no turn yet. Only one term describes the US Dollar: scrofulous.

The Dow rose 83 points today to close at 10,285. S&P500 chugged right alongside, rising 5 to 1,098. Stocks are closing in on the moment of truth. Remember the Bear of the bear market always raises as many people's hopes as high as possible, to fill his lair before he mauls his victims. Stay clear of stocks. "Abandon hope, all ye who enter Wall Street."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

The Silver Price Remains the Fly in This Rally's Ointment

Gold Price Close Today : 1,101.90
Change: 1.10 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.212
Change: 0.258 or -1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,355.50
Change: -0.50 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 333.15
Change: -1.05 or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.02
Change: 1.008 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,246.97
Change: 20.03 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.02
Change: -0.04 or -0.1%

The SILVER PRICE remains the fly in this rally's ointment. Why? It has failed so far to make new highs along with gold. Oh, it has made new highs for the move, but not all-time new highs. Today it was strongly attacked and driven back to the bottom of its range ($17.20), after breaching the top of its range ($17.20 - $17.60) during yesterday, but refusing to close above $17.60. I don't like SILVER and GOLD PRICES closing one up and one down the same day. That's a non-confirmation, a family disagreement, a falling out, and somebody may get hurt when that happens. ("Put that fork down!")

Then, too, I can switch on my paranoia meter, and it goes off the chart at such an unnatural result as "gold up/silver down." My Manipulation Meter tells me that I get a bigger bang for my precious metals manipulating buck if I hit the much smaller silver market with selling, rather than the larger gold market. If I can break the silver price, that will drag the gold price down.

Aww, but forget all that conspiracy stuff. Accurate or not, technically divergent closes indicate confusion and hesitation in any market. Stocks today showed the same bafflement, with some indices rising while others fell. Today silver fell 25.8 cents to close on Comex at $17.212. In the aftermarket silver is trading at $17.32.

The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, kept on climbing that proverbial bull market wall of worry to close up at $1,101.90 (that is Eleven hundred One dollars & 90/100ths). You don't have to be a genius like Nancy Pelosi or Barbara Boxer to recognize gold is fighting hard to push through $1,100 against tough resistance.

The gold price climbed to $1,108 early in the day, then was driven back to $1,097. Bloodied but unbeaten it rose to close $1,101.90 on Comex, up $1.10. Then -- well, by golly! -- it climbed to $1,105.60 in the aftermarket. I have to call that a successful test of support.

Will the gold price pierce $1,110 (One thousand One hundred Ten dollars) this time? It's fighting to. Maybe it will be knocked back to correct before it does, but it won't be much. As I keep on reminding y'all, "A bull market climbs a wall of worry." That means folks on all sides can cite all sorts of apparently good reasons -- meretricious reasons, really -- why the market can't climb any further. Then it does.

Right now that "good reason" is silver's lagging. I don't know whether that foretells an imminent correction, but I do think all the "dollar carry trade" stories prophesying that gold, stocks, and commodities will collapse momentarily as the dollar soars and the carry trade gamblers get caught short dollars are overblown. Sure, it could happen, but the dollar has to rally first, and there hasn't so much as the first swallow of Capistrano flown by yet to harbinge a dollar rally.

Most of these "gold will plunge" doom-and-gloomers miss the real reason gold is rallying anyway: monetary demand. Certainly some speculative demand has been fed by the Fed's huge money supply increases, and by the Dollar carry trade, but monetary demand for gold and silver is PRIMARILY driving this rally. The alternative currencies silver and gold (to put it into crass breakfast flake marketing terms) are stealing market share from lousy fiat currencies like dollars, yen, and Yugos, errr, euros. Gold and silver remain in a long term primary uptrend, a bull market, and that has at least 5 more years to climb.

Today the US Dollar Index fended off attackers at 75, rose to 75.25, sank to 74.95, leapt back to 75.271, then faded from 11:00a.m. the rest of the day. Right now it remains at 75.022, down 4 basis points form yesterday and near the bottom of today's range. Altogether, it was a thoroughly equivocal day, blowing hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth. It says at least, "Dollar didn't break today." When you are the scrofulous US Dollar, that's success, I reckon.

STOCKS are set up now for a crushing and long lasting peak. Stocks were confused today, with the Dow up 20.03 to 10,246.97, the S&P500 down 0.07, and others up and down. The Dow traded in a narrow range, up and down and up, but had a tough time holding on. Maximum I expect to see in the Dow is 10,375. Sauve qui peut! Every man for himself! Get to the lifeboats now!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.