To Confirm a New Rally the Gold Price Still Must Exceed $1,140

Gold Price Close Today : 1127.40
Change: 3.40 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.407
Change 09.5 cents or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1624.60
Change: 7.40 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 477.50
Change: -2.60 or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.77
Change: 0.546 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,779.17
Change: 45.50 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.25
Change: 61.20 or 0.5%

The GOLD PRICE cared not a fig for the US dollar index's 61.2 basis point rise (to 80.30), and rose itself $3.40 to $1,127.40 when Comex shut down. Maybe that interest in gold hatched as investors look at the game of Dumb and Dumber played by the Dollar and Euro and decided not to play.

Yesterday the gold price sagged but failed to break on three trips to $1,118, and rose today to $1,127.40. However, silver fell 9.5c to $17.407. Whenever silver and gold prices close against each other that always whispers "CAUTION!" Yet for the nonce and barring any gainsaying breakdown, let us give gold the benefit of the doubt for sake of the big biceps shown at $1,118, while we picture that tomorrow it completes a rounding bowl pattern and closes at or above $1,132. To confirm a new rally the gold price still must exceed $1,140.

If the SILVER PRICE falls through $17.30 'twill fall much further. On the other hand if it closes above $17.60 twill fly. Like Gold, the silver price remains in an uptrend. Yet it needs to advance because in this world you are either moving forward or sliding backward, with very little opportunity to stand still, rest, dip snuff, and generally relax.

Yesterday and today the US $ Index neared its 50 day moving average (79.41) & used that as a springboard to jump back to 80.30 resistance. Mercy, what a lot of bootless back and forth! Over the past 3 weeks the dollar index has traced out a rounding top that has now rolled over and nearly out of bed onto the floor. Or, to ransack my imagination for another metaphor, think of it this way: Place a dinner plate face down on the table near the edge. Now ease it out over the edge a half inch, hanging over the tile floor. Do it again. And again. How far can you keep pushing the plate over the edge until gravity punishes your impudence? That's where the US dollar index stands, thumbing its nose at gravity.

The dollar index rose today, but I haven't a clue why. First the Germans are, then they are not, going to help bail out Greece. First they don't want the IMF involved, then 20 minutes later they do. Finally the Germans sort of backed a bailout, and maybe that pushed the dollar up by casting the shadow of monetary and financial moronism over the Euro. Indeed, this doesn't seem a sensible game of chicken for currencies to play,
namely, Who Among Us Is Least Stupid?

STOCKS bettered January's high, so the Dow is likely to reach 11,100. Now The Moneychanger Law of Government Subsidies clearly states, "Government money always decapitalizes whoever takes it," but it appears otherwise right now in the stock market. The Nice Government Men in the Plunge Protection Team have poured in money. Momentarily it looks like they are winning, but only momentarily. After the wine and dancing comes the repentance in dust, ashes, headaches, lawsuits, and a crashing stock market. Keep watching, but yield not to the temptation to join the conga line.

This morning was our first splendid spring day after too many cold, gray ones. Driving down Robinson Branch I saw by the branch a two clumps of daffodils. I stopped and cut them, and as I was walking back ot my car saw in the lane across the road another clump. I jumped the flowing shallow ditch and bent over to cut them. When I lifted up my eyes, I saw a "crowd, a host of golden daffodils," blanketing a quarter acre of the forest floor. Oftimes daffodils are all that remains of an old home site. People die, the house decays and falls, fences disappear, but year after year the daffodils appear to recall that this place was once home to love.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The Gold Price Gapped Up Today, Which Most Always Means a Lift-Off

Dear Readers, yesterday's commentary carried a terrible misstatement, and it couldn't have been more untimely. Apparently between the time it left my hands and the time it was sent to you, the devil, aliens, or the Nice Government Men got to it and changed "Gold is forming an upside-down head and shoulders. . ." "The Dollar is forming an upside-down, etc." It was confusing, but in the context I hope you could understand that before the saboteurs got to it, I meant that the GOLD PRICE and not the dollar was making that reversal formation.

Couldn't have been more untimely, since I was explaining to you that was one of the factors forcing me to conclude that gold had finished its downside penance and was about to rise. Whoa! Today the gold price arose with a vengeance, sending Nice Government Men all over Washington puking in their waste baskets. Shot clean through all that $1,105 resistance mess, clean through $1,118 resistance, and on to an $1,128 high, coming to rest on Comex (where the public is always fleeced) at $1,127.00, up $21.90.

Friends! Behold! The gold price gapped up today, which most always means a lift-off for higher stratospheric regions. If this move truly is as strong as it promised today, then it must advance again tomorrow, not spend time trifling here -- ought to burst through $1,132 and knock on or through $1,140 tomorrow. Recall that's where gold stalled on its last trip, well, $1,144.80, so a close higher than that forces the presumption that gold has burst forth into a rally. A closely following close above $1,160 must confirm that. On the downside, a close below $1,118 gainsays all the above.

And in the heavens there was silence for the space of 30 nanoseconds, and all the inhabitants of Babylon and of Wall Street gazed up into the heavens at their loudspeakers, and Behold! the Angel of the Fed did speak, and all those who bought and all those who sold and all those who just watched and hoped that someday they might buy and sell did listen, and the Angel of the Fed announced the decision of the Council of the Fed in the firmament assembled, and the Angel of the Fed said, "Nothing. We are doing nothing. For a long while yet." And all those dollar buyers who had looked to the Fed for salvation found themselves downhill of a Great Stone rolling over their bodies and their wallets as the Dollar Index tumbled down and down and down, 57.8 basis points, before it rolled to a stop at 79.673, which just happened to fall at dollar support. And the Angel of the Fed flapped his paper wings in dismay, and scowled, well-knowing that if the dollar index breaketh 79.60, it will accelerate like a Democratic politician from Detroit at a congressional hearing on sudden-acceleration-syndrome in Toyotas. Yea, the Angel feared, the dollar may go into overdrive, and head downhill into the ditch. Filled with pitch. And derivatives. And government debt.

And so was it revealed that the Idols of the Fed were hiding feet of clay beneath their wingtips.

Thusfar the Fed's announcement about interest rates today. Clearly the dollar had been edging up on airy expectations that the Council of the Fed in the firmament assembled would begin to raise interest rates, or at least bluster as if they were. Sorry, the economy's pump is sucking far too much wind for those brave spirits to risk any such move. If the dollar breaks 79.60, twill hit 78 or 78.50 quickly. That would make room for a pleasant little gold rally. $ index now stands beneath its 20 DMA. Yet what's an Angel to do? Protect the dollar & gut the economy? Not by the hair on Ben Breanne's chinny chin chin.

The Dow Industrials and the S&P500 and every other index including the South Jersey and Delaware Hosiery Manufacturers Stock Index rose today. The Dow added 43.83 to 10,685.98 and the S&P500 climbed 8.95 to 1,159.46. Clearly the Fates have cut the string for stocks, and they must make their dooméd climb to the last high at 10,730 before the earthquake arrives. Keep thyself clear, dear Reader.

Yet a little proof for the above is found in the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$). It had flirted with G$200 (9.675 oz), but has traded out onto a shelf hanging over an abyss, never a propitious formation on a chart. Fell today for the third day to G$196.00 (9.482 oz). Thus whispereth the DiG$ in our ears that stocks are fixing to tumble and gold to rise.

While the gold price shot up the SILVER PRICE lagged not far behind, throwing its shoulder at that same $17.50 door that stopped it last time. Silver rose 36.7c to $17.45 today. As with gold, so with silver: tomorrow it must make good her gains and rise more, battering through that last high at $17.64.

I believe we have a breakout in metals, but confirmation is needed. There'll be some excitement here the next few days.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

If it Were Moving Lower, the Gold Price Would Have Broken Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1105.20
Change: 3.70 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.040
Change 1.6 cents or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1613.90
Change: 7.40 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 459.65
Change: -2.60 or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.86
Change: 0.156 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,642.15
Change: 17.46 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.23
Change: 0.40 or 0.5%

Well, I've been thinking about this silver and gold business, and my opinion is rolling over. Thursday and Friday gold took a whipping, but it didn't break. Oh, the sellers backed gold all the way to $1,100 and a hair beyond, but it never closed down there. If it were moving lower, the gold price would have broken today. Yet hark! It hath not broken, neither hath it budged, but rather hath it risen. At Comex the gold price today rose $3.70 to $1,105.20. In the aftermarket the gold price is trading around $1,108.

Now what have we on gold's chart? A series of higher, i.e., rising, lows ($1,044.80, $1,085, $1,098.80) and higher highs -- the definition of an uptrend.

The dollar has also nearly completed an upside-down head and shoulders formation that generally pours a foundation for a rally. Only a close below $1,100 could contradict that. If the gold price clears that neckline at $1,140 it will run like a scalded dog.

The silver price snoozed most of the day, with a range from 17.14 to 16.94, and a Comex close at 17.04 (up 1.6c). Silver is not rising fast, but has continued to crawl up off Thursday's 16.80 low. Mark that silver has kept in step with gold, as the gold/silver ratio shows. Silver will move up with gold, but as with gold it must not fall back below this 17.00 area.

I am watching our cagiest customers coming in to buy. What does that say to y'all? Res ipsa loquitur.

US Dollar index made a temporary bottom on Friday, and is correcting against the down trend that has been ruling the past two weeks. Today 80.40 contained it, and it is trading now at 80.227, up 40 basis points. No wonder, considering how much trouble all the other scrofulous fiat currencies are wallowing in, but that doesn't make the dollar sound, it just makes it the least scrofulous in a crowd of scabby currencies. Some distinction. The dollar has rolled over into at least an interim correction, if not steered its trend down. A break below 78.50 would confirm a trend change, a close above 81.50 would shift gears the other direction.

While the Dow Industrials rose 17.46 today to close 10,642.15 and the S&P500 rose an infinitesimal 0.52 to $1,150.51, all the other stock indices dropped today. Nawww, that's not really good news for Wall Street and the Brothels of Brokerage. Confusion and bewilderment too often prove to be a plunge in the making. Keep on staying out of stocks.

Yes, yes, it is the Ides of March, upon which in 44 BC the Roman general and would be tyrant Julius Caesar died at the hands of a group of conspirators who thought a chance remained to save the Roman republic. Rather, they hastened its demise and their own. They simply struck too late. Dead republics cannot be successfully resuscitated.

On this date in 1820 Maine became the 23rd state, having seceded from Massachusetts. Whoa! Wait. I used the S-word. Whoa, y'all keep my secret and don't breathe the S-word to our imperial masters on the Potomac. They might draw the wrong conclusion and start thinking my name is Brutus.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Next Week Gold and Silver Prices May Drop Slightly

Gold Price Close Today : 1,101.70
Gold Price Close 5th March : 1,134.80
Change: -33.10 or -2.9%%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.024
Silver Price Close 5th March : 17.362
Change -33.80 cents or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,608.40
Platinum Price Close 5th March: 1,578.00
Change: 30.40 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 462.10
Palladium Price Close 5th March: 479.15
Change: -17.05 or -3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.71
Gold Silver Ratio 5th March: 65.36
Change: -0.65 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,624.69
Dow Industrial 5th March: 10,566.20
Change: 58.49 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 79.802
US Dollar Index 5th March: 80.430
Change: -0.63 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE failed its challenge from last week, unable to break through $1,150, so it fell back, in spite of a lower dollar. Stocks keep on inching forward.

The gold price barely edged to a new low for the move today at $1,098.64, but closed at $1,101.70, down $6.50. Gold has established a down trend. I'm not sure whether the 5 day chart (See "XAUUSDO" on ino.com) shows a triple or double bottom. Triple bottoms fall through, double bottoms reverse trend. Either way $1,100 is strong support.

But the gold price has crossed below its 20 day moving average, first hint of a down move. This might be the right shoulder of an upside down head & shoulders forming, with a drop to $1,080 possible. If so would complete the right shoulder and offer a strategic buying opportunity.

Silver's low today at $16.9415 came 11c higher than yesterday's but the SILVER PRICE fell 11.2c to close on Comex at $17.023. What can I say when the facts practice their extortion on me? The silver price began an uptrend off Wednesday's $16.80 low, but 'tis so far lazy and must best that last high at $17.64 from Wednesday. The silver price could drop as low as $16.60 without breaking the uptrend line anchored on Feb. 4.

All other indicators favour higher prices the silver price stands favourably against its moving averages. Yet, yet, yet, a close over $18.00 is needed to attract those fickle Funds and other buyers. Be patient. Silver and gold prices have disjointed a bit here.

Next week both metals may drop slightly. Meanwhile we tread the weary circle of Sampson, grinding out the grain of correction hour by drear hour until our day arrives.

Like yesterday, stocks traded on a see-saw today, winding over and under unchanged and weakening throughout the day. What meaneth this sign, that the Dow rises 12.85 while the S&P500 drops 0.25? Confusion. Bewilderment. Indecision. Coasting to a stop. Dow closed 10,624.69 & S&P500 at 1,149.99. Next week Dow will likely hit the last high at 10,730, then fade.

As yesterday hinted, the Dollar Index tumbled today, down 52.3 basis points to 79.80. Support awaiteth at 79.50, but if/when that fails, then 78.50 will be the next stop. Coming soon! More downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Reasons Behind the Wild Roller Coaster Ride for the Gold Price in the Last Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1108.00
Change: 0.20 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.136
Change 14.2 cents or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1610.80
Change: 22.50 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 460.15
Change: -3.60 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.66
Change: -0.529 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,611.84
Change: 44.10 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.27
Change: -0.17 or -0.2%

A reader asked me to give the reasons behind the wild roller coaster ride for the GOLD PRICE in the last week. Well, a range from $1,100 to $1,142.70 is only 3.8%, not so terribly wide. Simplest explanation is that gold mounted a massive rise from $681 in November 2008 to $1,226.40 in December 2009, so a correction was bound to follow, frustrating, slow, rangey.

Yet now my friend Bob the Technical Genius points out that an upside down head and shoulders may be forming in gold, a base for the next rally. May be forming.

The simple answer says it just takes time for a market's pendulum to swing from one side to another. If you don't like to sweat, stay off the field.

The GOLD PRICE today fought off an attack that backed it down to $1,100.50, but closed up 20c on the day at $1,108. Splendid, but still range-bound.

The SILVER PRICE remains in an uptrend and keeps gaining on gold. That declining gold/silver ratio says something good is coming for both metals, but what exactly? Silver has also formed a rising wedge since February -- bad juju -- and must close above $18.00 to negate the negatives of that.

Today's $16.832 silver price low was a little higher than yesterday's, and silver gained 14.2c to close on Comex at $17.136. Tomorrow the silver price should go higher but keep in mind that menacing rising wedge and silver's need to conquer $18.00.

Tomorrow promises to be a dark day for the US Dollar Index. Once it falls through the trap door at 80.1, it won't stop till it hits the floor at 79.50. If that floor gives way, then next story is at 78.50. We'll know this my opinion is hogwash if the dollar closes above 81.50, otherwise the dollar will drop a while. Dollar index today fell 17.1 basis points to 80.274.

Stocks rose today 44.1 points to close at 10,611.84 for the Dow and up 4.63 at 1,150.24 for the S&P500. Yes, I have been fighting stocks all the way up and for a reason: the rally is a trap. It may reach the last high at 10,700 or even in a fit climb above 11,000, but the sand is running out of the hourglass. What you are witnessing does not by any means qualify as a new bull market. P/E, yields, time elapsed in this bear market, all argue fatally against a new bull market. No, this is a rally in a bear market, and after the bear has lured the most victims possible into his cave, then he will strike and devour them. Y'all stay out of that bear's cave. Stocks have formed a lethal rising wedge, which usually resolves by crashing.

Many thanks for your expressions of care for Susan and your many suggestions. We consider each of them carefully, and deeply appreciate your prayers.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Gold Price is Near the Bottom of the Range

Gold Price Close Today : 1107.80
Change: -14.20 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.994
Change -32.4 cents or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1588.30
Change: -8.70 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 463.75
Change: -6.25 or -1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.19
Change: 0.400 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,567.33
Change: 2.95 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.46
Change: -0.13 or -0.2%

Gold's spike downward yesterday was a false signal since it climbed for half the day today, then deflated like a balloon from $1,125 to $1,105 and lay there flat. Friend of mine on the floor of the Chicago commodity exchange said that the big funds suddenly sold in large numbers, pushing down the market. Could be.

Just like y'all, I'm watching to see whether the GOLD PRICE will hold $1,100 support. If not, gold re-visits $1,090. Yet forget ye not gold must climb over $1,125 to turn up again, that is, to change the trend from down to up. I reckon gold is paying this week for its party last week. 'Tis near the bottom of the range, you have to close your eyes, suck in your gut, and buy some.

Today the SILVER PRICE behaved much like gold, only more so: it V-bopttomed yesterday, climbed till noon all the way to $17.64, then simply plunged straight down to $16.95.
Comex close at $16.994 was cosmetic since it is trading at $17.04 in the aftermarket. ("Cosmetic" means somebody was putting make-up on the close, 6/10c to make it look worse, or maybe I've been studying the yankee government so long that I've become paranoid.)

So now we have this double bottom at $16.90. Will it hold? The market will make that plain on the morrow. If silver stays above $17.00, I would buy some. It could still drop all the way to $16.40 without breaking the uptrend line demarcated since early February.

I re-iterate that I believe we have already seen the after-December lows.

The scabrous US DOLLAR index (I am working hard on a synonym for "scrofulous") double topped yesterday and today at 80.80, then, having lost its wind altogether, collapsed to a low of 80.313. By now it has only slightly recovered to 80l.459, down only 13.3 basis points. That little change doesn't really tell the same tale as the five day chart.

For the nonce 80.10 offers support, and yet stubborner support awaits at 79.60, which will likely see soon since the $ has established a short term downtrend. I have not a clue what hit the dollar today, but it didn't help anything else much, either.

Although the Dow today rose a magnificent 2.95 points to close at 10,567.33 and the S&P 500 rose 5.16 to 1,145.61, look at the chart. You will discover there only indecision and tentativeness.

Monday I stood by while Susan had an echo-cardiogram, an ultrasound for the heart. Susan says her heart valves are "clapping hands" because that's what they look like. Whoa! Then you stagger and reel back recognizing that in your own chest every day of your life your own heart sings without ceasing a song of praise to God, and every man's chest rings with the same unbroken psalm, will-he, nill-he. God runs the whole universe like that, with crazy, reckless generosity, upholding all things by the word of his power and throwing out miracles and blessing with both hands, while we are so used to it all that we no longer know to call it a miracle.

At least Susan's heart valve repaired back in August 2008 is still clapping its hands, but her heart has a "junctional" rhythm. Her cardiologist wants to put in a pacemaker but brave, stubborn Susan, a very sparing consumer of medical and pharmaceutical products, begged off 90 days to try to straighten her heart rhythm out with supplements.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The Gold Price Might Have Drawn a Spike Bottom Low Today at $1,108.60

Gold Price Close Today : $1122.00
Change: -1.60 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.318
Change 6.6 cents or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1588.60
Change: -8.40 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 466.15
Change: -3.85 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.79
Change: -0.341 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,568.39
Change: 15.87 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.57
Change: 0.14 or 0.2%

This frustrating up and down, deceiving at every turn, threatening to shoot but never quite dropping the hammer: this is what everyone loves about markets in a trading range. They break out, they break down, they break up, but then never follow through.

The GOLD PRICE might have drawn a spike bottom low today at $1,108.60. It closed at $1,122 on Comex, down $1.60, but now is trading at $1,121.25. Clear resistance shows at $1,125, support at $1,108 and $1,100. Gold's 20 day moving average today reads $1,111.80, so gold must stay above that level to fight a breakdown.

It's a trading range market. Buy near the bottom of the range on declines.

SILVER hath shown itself stronger than gold lately, as seen in the Gold/Silver Ratio dropping today to 64.79. Comex closed silver today higher by 6.6c at 17.318, while gold declined $1.60. That mirrors the confusion and indecision in the market. Look at a six month chart. Silver turned up after trading on 4 February at an intraday low of 14.68, and it is trading over its 200, 20, and 50 DMA.

All of that is contained within a wider trading range bound by 14.50 and 19.50. Trading in that range is all noise until silver closes above 19.50. Yet we can make the most out of an irritating situation by accumulating silver toward the low side of that range. Silver is still trending up.

My opinion remains that we have already seen the lows in both gold and silver. The US DOLLAR INDEX has rolled over on its back, & like the fish that does the same, will sink. As long as it holds over 78 it will remain in an uptrend. Any close above 81.30 brings higher prices, below 79.60 lower. Till then, all the up and down is merely noise.

STOCKS today nosed above Dow 10,600 to 10,612, but couldn't make good the gain. By day's end stocks had surrendered most of their gains. Dow stopped at 10,568.39, adding a grandiloquent 15.87. S&P 500 ended at 1,140.28, up a loud 1.78. A turning point is due this month or next. Those who buy stocks will be as disappointed as those who trusted Bernie Madoff or Charles Ponzi.

Sorry I missed sending y'all a commentary
yesterday, but I had to take Susan to her appointment with her cardiologist, and we arrived home too late. She had an echocardiogram but we haven't talked to the doctor about the results yet. She may need a pacemaker, which she desires as a Jersey cow longs for big screen TV. Thank you for your prayers, and please don't stop.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Assuming that Silver and Gold Prices Are About to Extend Their Rally, This Late-Stage Leg Up Will See Silver Sharply Outperform Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1,134.80
Gold Price Close 26-Feb : 1,118.30
Change: 16.50 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.362
Silver Price Close 26-Feb : 16.499
Change 86.30 cents or 5.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,578.00
Platinum Price Close 26-Feb: 1,543.50
Change: 34.50 or 2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 479.15
Palladium Price Close 26-Feb: 431.75
Change: 47.40 or 11.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.36
Gold Silver Ratio 26-Feb: 67.78
Change: -2.42 or -3.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,566.20
Dow Industrial 26-Feb: 10,325.26
Change: 240.94 or 2.3%

US Dollar Index: 80.430
US Dollar Index 26-Feb: 80.352
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

Res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself. This week's big winner was Palladium the Obscure, up 11%, on strength of a J.P. Morgan report that the PALLADIUM PRICE would b'ime/by touch $700/oz, stampeding the sheep into palladium. Moving right along, the SILVER PRICE won the next prize with a 5.2% gain, 3.5 times gold's gain, so the Gold/Silver Ratio dropped 3.7%. Dow rose 2.3%, S&P500 3%, and dollar index flatlined.

'Twas a strong week for the GOLD PRICE, stronger than the mere numbers (up 1.5%) intimate. No, that's not blather. Gold successfully tested $1,090 support last week and battered its way through resistance at $1,100, $1,118, $1,125, and $1,132, not to mention that in February $1,120 had turned gold back. Yesterday gold discretely corrected, bounced off $1,125 and today closed over $1,132 at $1,134.80 ($2.20 higher).

All these things set the gold price up to challenge the January high at $1,161.80 intraday ($1,150 closing). That will be the final witness that gold has entered a new rally, ready to test its mettle once more against the $1,226.40 all time intraday high. Technically from Dec. 3 to end-February gold formed a falling wedge, which (as they usually do) has broken out upside. Another harbinger of higher prices.

The silver price hath the bit between its teeth and runneth. It now stands above its 20 day moving average and its 50 DMA and the 20 is about to cross above the 200. All hopeful pointers. There is little resistance between here and the last intraday peak at $19.45, chiefly $17.75 and $18.80. Forget ye not that the silver price failed to make a new all-time high in December to match gold's, which shame silver has yet to wipe clean. Assuming that my earlier interpretation was correct and that silver and gold prices are about to extend their rally, this late-stage leg up will see silver sharply outperform gold. Too early to tell if that's true because the gold price must push through $1,226 to confirm. Otherwise we are condemned to five more months of up and down trading in a range.

Silver today gained 20.6c to close on Comex at $17.362. Look what the gold/silver ratio has done, falling to 65.36 from above 70 not long ago. Next stop resistance at 60:1

Longer term, all these messengers bring good news for SILVER and GOLD PRICES, just a leetle uncertainty about the near future.

'Pears to me the US DOLLAR INDEX has rolled over and left its rally behind. It double topped at 81.20+ this week. To resume its uptrend the $ Index would have to climb over 81.30. Fall will accelerate once it pierces 79.80, then question will become, Can it hold above 78.50? Still dangerous as a rattlesnake in a liverish mood, because dollar could bend, correct, and shoot to 89. I don't think that's going to happen, nor do I think that Michael Anthony will drop by my house tonight with a million dollar check from John Beresford Tipton, but I recognize the possibility. Dollar Index fell 13.1 basis points to 80.43 in late trading.

STOCKS managed to rise today and clear the 10,400 hurdle. And? So what? This move may reach the last high around 10,700, but that will only emphasize with a double top the single material fact: stocks will fall much, much further, even further than the last 6450 low for the Dow. Today' scorecard? Dow + 122.06 at 10,566.20 & S&P500 at 1,137.78, up 14.81.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.